My Final Oscar Predictions

My favourite time of the year is here: Oscars week. Every year, I actively track awards season since months before it starts. I watch videos, read predictions, learn statistics, and try to maximize my chances of getting every category right just for the fun of it. This season has been hectic, and by this point, I would confidently call it one of the most chaotic and unpredictable since I started following awards season as an innocent little 13-year-old cinephile back in 2014. I do prefer unpredictability, though. It makes things much more fun, and it's not like I'm betting money on this, anyway. But if you are, and you're trying to gather as many opinions as possible before tomorrow's big night in order to maximize your chances of not losing a fortune, I hope my predictions and analysis can be somewhat useful. For all categories except the ones where I haven't seen any nominees, I'll also share who I think should win and who I think should have been nominated.

I'll quickly go through the below-the-line categories, and dive into the big ones at the end with a more in-depth analysis. Here's to going 24 for 24!

Live Action Short

Will win:

Two People Exchanging Saliva

Could win instead:

The Singers

Documentary Short

Will win: 

All the Empty Rooms

Could win instead:

The Devil Is Busy

Animated Short

Will win:

Retirement Plan

Could win instead:

Butterfly

Documentary Feature

Mr. Nobody Against Putin has had key precursor wins that The Perfect Neighbor, which I see a lot of people predicting, simply hasn't had.

Will win: 

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Could win instead:

The Perfect Neighbor
 

International Feature

This is one of the closest races of the night, and no matter which of the top two contenders ends up winning, I'll be happy. But due to Sentimental Value overperforming with a whopping nine nominations, as well as its win in the category at BAFTA, I think European voters will end up earning it the statuette. But I won't be at all shocked if The Secret Agent pulls off the upset!

Will win:

Sentimental Value

Could win instead:

The Secret Agent

Should win:

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Should have been nominated:

It Was Just An Accident

Animated Feature

This one isn't really close. One can never discard the Academy's adoration for Disney, but KPop Demon Hunters is such a juggernaut that Zootopia 2 is barely a threat at all.

Will win:

KPop Demon Hunters

Could win instead: 

Zootopia 2

Should win:

KPop Demon Hunters

Original Song

This is another one that's not really close. If Sinners pulls off the generational sweep that some people are predicting, I could see “I Lied to You” (my favourite of the category) pulling it off, but I'm not predicting it. It's likelier that Diane Warren will storm the stage and just give the acceptance speech herself after her 17th loss in the category.

Will win:

“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Could win instead:

“I Lied to You” from Sinners

Should win:

“Dear Me” from Dianne Warren: Relentless, just so the Academy finally stops nominating her every damn year.

Should have been nominated:

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners

Original Score

Probably the easiest race of the night to call. If you want a guaranteed loss, go for anyone other than Göransson.

Will win:

Ludwig Göransson for Sinners

Could win instead:

Jonny Greenwood for One Battle After Another

Should win:

Ludwig Göransson for Sinners

Should have been nominated:

Daniel Lopatin for Marty Supreme

Visual Effects

Another easy one to call—and honestly? Well deserved.

Will win: 

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should have been nominated:

How to Train Your Dragon

Sound

F1 is definitely the frontrunner. But this is another category where, if Sinners pulls off a massive sweep (which, again, I'm not predicting), I could see it taking the win. It's also a very music-heavy film, which the Sound department of the Academy loves. But if there's anything they love even more, it's a spectacle- and effects-heavy movie, so F1 it is.

Will win:

F1

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

F1

Should have been nominated:

Weapons

Makeup & Hairstyling

Spoiler alert for the following two predictions, but there are three technical categories for which the clearest frontrunner is Frankenstein, and predicting anyone else to win is just being a contrarian. This one's probably the one it has in the bag the most. Once again, record-breaking sweep = Sinners, probably, but I doubt that it'll happen.

Will win:

Frankenstein

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

Frankenstein

Should have been nominated:

Weapons

Production Design

Ditto Makeup & Hairstyling

Will win:

Frankenstein

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win: 

Hamnet

Should have been nominated:

Sentimental Value

Costume Design

Ditto Makeup & Hairstyling

Will win:

Frankenstein

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

Frankenstein

Should have been nominated:

Superman

Film Editing

One Battle After Another is definitely the one to beat here. It has been the best performer throughout the season in terms of precursors, and it's no wonder why. The editing is definitely one of the strongest and most noticeable aspects of the movie. I could see Sinners upsetting, but it would surprise me.

We also need to take into account that Sound and Film Editing winners match remarkably often. It hasn't happened for the last 3 years, but before that, we went through a 5-year streak where it did happen. But since F1's buzz is so weak, I can't help but put it pretty far down in 3rd place, even if it does win Sound.

Will win:

One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Cinematography

While I would love for Autumn Durald Arkapaw to become the first-ever woman to win this award, I just don't think it'll happen this year. One Battle After Another has way too much precursor momentum in this category, and I don't see it losing unless Sinners pulls off that unlikely-but-possible massive sweep that I've mentioned a hundred times by now.

Will win:

One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Casting

Since this is a new category, anyone who claims they know for sure how the Academy will be voting here in the years to come is either crazy or lying. My suspicion, though, is that (at least for the first few years of the category's existence), they'll be treating it as a sort of equivalent to SAG's Cast Ensemble award. As such, I have to go Sinners, which also won the 41st annual Casting Society Artios Award (the closest thing we currently have to a predictor in this category). Interestingly, One Battle After Another wasn't nominated there, so this is one of the few categories where I don't think it's neck-to-neck with Sinners.

Will win:

Sinners

Could win instead:

Hamnet

Should win:

Marty Supreme

Should have been nominated:

It Was Just An Accident

Adapted Screenplay

This might be the easiest race of the night to predict. After 14 nominations, the time has finally come for Paul Thomas Anderson to win an Oscar. One Battle After Another's screenplay has the quality to win, but it also has PTA's narrative behind it. When it comes to the Oscars, a good narrative is hard to beat. Even if he misses Director, even if he misses Picture, even if he misses both, PTA has this one in the bag.

Will win:

One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Hamnet

Should win:

One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

No Other Choice

Original Screenplay

No matter which of the two clear frontrunners win Best Picture tomorrow, both of their directors will at least walk out of the Dolby Theatre with a Screenplay Oscar in their hands. With only slightly less certainty than Adapted, I can also confidently say that Ryan Coogler has this one in the bag. He'll only be the second Black person ever to win the award, after Jordan Peele did back in 2018 for Get Out.

Will win:

Sinners

Could win instead:

It Was Just An Accident

Should win:

Sinners

Should have been nominated:

Sorry, Baby and Weapons

Supporting Actress

Of the three acting categories that are wide open, this one's probably the wide open-est. 

Teyana Taylor's chances are definitely the slimmest (as far as my research shows, no one has ever won this category when their only major televised precursor win was the Golden Globe), but the precursor race has been so chaotic that it could very much happen for the first time.

Wunmi Mosaku has two things going for her: the BAFTA win and Sinners' tremendous performance nominations-wise. If Sinners starts overperforming with wins tomorrow, I'll then pretty much take it for granted that Mosaku is winning. But the BAFTA win could very much be attributed to her having home field advantage, and once again: I am not predicting that Sinners will overperform.

Amy Madigan has the buzz, the far bigger and showier performance, and the Critics' Choice (a relatively small predictor) and SAG (a huge predictor) wins. There's one huge issue, though: She's the lone nominee for her movie, and the last lone nominee who won Supporting Actress was Penélope Cruz all the way back in 2009 for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. It has to happen again at some point, though, right? Ultimately, I have to go with my gut feeling and for the stronger predictor (the SAG winner in this category has matched the Oscar winner 9 out of the last 10 times, while BAFTA has matched only 7 times). 

Will win:

Amy Madigan for Weapons

Could win instead:

Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners

Should win:

Amy Madigan for Weapons

Should have been nominated:

Odessa A'Zion for Marty Supreme

Supporting Actor

Oscars history lesson time: Back in 2001, Marcia Gay Harden shocked the world. Without a single precursor nomination, she made it all the way to a Supporting Actress nod for Pollock. Months later, she shocked the world again when she won the Oscar. An actor winning an Oscar without a single precursor nomination hadn't happened before, and hasn't happened since. Most people attribute her victory to the fact that the 2000-01 Supporting Actress race was a mess, with a different precursor going to a different actress every time.

This year, Delroy Lindo (a veteran with a very strong “long-overdue” narrative we can't ignore) could make history by pulling a Marcia Gay Harden. If he does, Sinners is FOR SURE taking Best Picture.

There's one reason why I'm not going with him, though, and it's not just the fact that going with him makes no statistical sense and would be based purely on gut feeling: This race isn't as wide open as the 2000-01 Supporting Actress race was. Sean Penn has BAFTA and SAG in the bag, a killer combo that makes him the most logical prediction to go with. That being said, he's not particularly well-liked in Hollywood, and he didn't attent BAFTA or SAG to give a speech. He clearly couldn't care less whether he wins or loses (who knows if he'll even attend tomorrow). As such, look out for Lindo. 

Will win:

Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Delroy Lindo for Sinners

Should win:

Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

Paul Mescal for Hamnet

Actress

This race is right up there with Best Score and the Screenplay categories as one of the easiest to predict of the night? Could voters think “Buckley has this one in the bag, surely” and vote for someone else thinking that their vote won't make a difference? Sure. Will enough of them do that to sway the results in someone else's direction? It's Earth-shatteringly unlikely.

Will win:

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

Could win instead:

Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

Should win:

Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

Should have been nominated:

Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another

Actor

One of the most interesting categories of the night, for sure. Can Chalamet still win after losing most precursor momentum (including losing both BAFTA and SAG) and his recent questionable comments about ballet an opera? Most certainly. Don't discard him as a strong threat.

But the Academy doesn't love giving this particular award to young actors, and Chalamet is barely 30 (which would make him the 2nd-youngest winner of the award after Adrien Brody from The Pianist). When casting their ballots, many voters were surely thinking “come on, this kid has endless gas left in the tank, he's bound to win at some point.”

You know who I don't believe they were thinking that about? Michael B. Jordan. He has the longer career, his campaign has been less alienating than Chalamet's, and that standing ovation he got at SAG? It has to mean something.

Don't take your eyes off of Wagner Moura, though. If the votes are split enough—and they very well could be—, he could be the black sheep winner of the race. It's unlikely, but too possible to discard.

Will win:

Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

Could win instead:

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme

Should win:

Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme

Should have been nominated:

These would have been my personal top 5 as well!

Director

I'd be delighted to see Ryan Coogler win this. His direction of Sinners is a powerhouse piece of work, and he's a very strong second place here. He has the career narrative, and his film certainly has the strength (quality-wise and nominations-wise). The race, I'm sure, will be far closer than many people are giving it credit for.

But I can't ignore the stats. PTA has dominated the entire season, and his losing the Oscar with all the precursors that he's won would be a historic upset. On top of that, he has one of the strongest career narratives of any Best Director candidate in recent memory, not very much unlike the narrative that won Martin Scorsese his Departed Oscar. The smart prediction here is undeniably PTA.

Will win:

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Ryan Coogler for Sinners

Should win:

Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

Jafar Panahi for It Was Just An Accident

Picture

Not since the 2019-20 race has the Best Picture race been this close and unpredictable. Up-in-the-air isn't really an accurate descriptor, because there are only two movies here that truly have a chance of winning: One Battle After Another and Sinners. As it happens, they were my two favourite movies of 2025, in that order. No matter what happens here, I'll be beyond delighted.

No matter what happens, history will be made. One Battle After Another would be the first film ever to win at the Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Eddies, DGA, PGA, and WGA (and at least one SAG prize) and then go on to lose the Best Picture Oscar. Sinners would be the first film ever to win the ACE, SAG Cast Ensemble, and WGA and then go on to lose Best Picture. No matter what, a new precedent will be set tomorrow night.

But come on: One Battle After another has won everything. If I were to predict Sinners here, I'd have to predict it to win one of the Supporting Acting categories, and likely also Director. I don't feel confident doing that, and I don't feel all that confident predicting it here, either. I'm going with One Battle, but I am more than prepared to be proven wrong. Either way, tomorrow will be historic.

Will win:

One Battle After Another

Could win instead:

Sinners

Should win:

One Battle After Another

Should have been nominated:

The Voice of Hind Rajab